(See the previous post for an explanation of medical- scientific terms).
What is Omicron?
“Omicron” is an important new ‘cousin’ of the SARS-Cov-2 virus (the original virus of the pandemic). It was identified in Southern Africa (South Africa and Zimbabwe) a few weeks ago. The previous dominant version, the Delta variant, “Delta”, caused huge trouble here in the U.S. and worldwide. Delta was even more contagious than SARS-Cov-2.
It’s early days in this new phase of the pandemic. Scientists are hurrying to figure out the important things about the Omicron variant. It is definitely more contagious than Delta, and it has already spread all over the world, including the United States. So far, it doesn’t appear to make people more sick than Delta.
What are “variants” and why do they happen?
Each time that an individual virus replicates itself, it has to copy its DNA. The COVID-19 DNA is made of about 30,000 individual pieces which are called “bases.” A single virus will replicate billions and billions of times in each human being. The copying process is extremely precise, but it’s not perfect. Even in one single person, there will be copying mistakes. During a pandemic, millions of people will get the virus and the number of copies of a virus is enormous. That means that there will be huge numbers of mistakes, “mutants or variants”- viruses that are very similar to the original COVID-19 virus- but not exactly like it.
The original COVID-19 virus and its variants are all in competition with each other to take over the pandemic. We don’t ever hear much about most variants. They aren’t noticed because they aren’t more infectious or more virulent. However, a variant that spreads more quickly and is at least as virulent as Delta will get attention. Given the sheer number of variants, and the absence of an effective global vaccination program across the world, it was mathematically inevitable that a new and worse version of Delta would emerge and dominate. That’s Omicron.
Where did it start? The South African’s gift to the world
We’ll never know where the very first Omicron particle developed. It was first noticed in Southern Africa. South African scientists quickly figured out many things about Omicron, including its exact DNA sequence. They immediately shared this information with the World Health Organization (WHO), which in turn immediately shared it with the whole world. Thanks for the South African warning, we already know a lot. (1) We know that Omicron is more contagious. We know that the vaccines will not work as well. And we know that medications are probably going to help. It was very unselfish of the South Africans to quickly share what they knew. I’ll tell you later.
Why did Omicron appear in Africa first?
Variants occur anywhere that Delta exists. However, variants are more common in populations and places where Delta is rampant. Variants develop more easily under the following circumstances:
- Where COVID-19 spreads easily. Regions and countries where COVID-19 vaccinations are not available and healthcare is not great.
- There are already a lot of people with diseases that weaken the immune system. People who have weak immune systems might carry the virus for a very long time without becoming sick. That allows gives the virus plenty of time to mutate. Weak immune systems occur in places where diseases HIV, Tuberculosis and Malaria are prevalent.
- Where mitigation / prevention is not working. In countries where economic and political considerations interfere with proper pandemic management, variants are more common.
For all of those reasons, it is not surprising that Omicron appeared first in Southern Africa. But it could have happened anywhere.
Next, we’ll talk about what’s being done about Omicron.
footnotes:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/08/1062352212/studies-suggest-sharp-drop-in-vaccine-protection-v-omicron-yet-cause-for-optimism